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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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