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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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