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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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