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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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