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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 26 January 14
FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF CARGOES - SOLYM CARRIERS
COALspot.com: The freight market has continued to soften further this week with BDI down by 12.31 pct. BDI was closed at 1,246 points week ended 24 ...
Friday, 24 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.9% ON WEEK IN WEEK ENDED SATURDAY - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 24 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING IN START OF 2014 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been faltering since the start of 2014, struggling to hold its ground as low seasonal demand has hindered further growth in ...
Thursday, 23 January 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK THE ACTIVITY CAME DOWN DRAMATICALLY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
With the Chinese New Year approaching the activity and rate levels are sliding in both hemispheres. Rates in the Atlantic have knocked off so ...
Thursday, 23 January 14
30 DAYS LEFT TO REGISTER FOR PACIFIC BASIN COAL CONFERENCE
COALspot.com: (Press Release) : IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Pacific Basin Coal Confer ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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