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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 January 14
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS RETREAT TO OLD 'HABITS', REFUSING TO DEMOLISH OLD VESSELS, THREATENING MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
If one thing is clear as we reflect on the 2013 shipping markets, it's that ship owners took advantage of low prices, in order to acquire newer ton ...
Monday, 27 January 14
MERCATOR SINGAPORE REPORTS 52% INCREASE IN EBITDA FOR Q3 FY 2014 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company that operates a fleet of fourteen d ...
Monday, 27 January 14
13TH CLEAN COAL FORUM 2014
COALspot.com: (Press Release) - Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12 &13 2014 in Beijing, China. We a ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 & Q4 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.45 percent month on month and closed at US$ 79.05 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 2014 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST GROUND, ENDS AT $60 PMT
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 2.29% pmt month on month on Friday 24 January 2014. Th ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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