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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
RESOURCE NATIONALISM OR PROTECTIONISM FOR THE MINING AND EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY - JOHN WHITTAKER & MICHAEL SWANGARD
Resource nationalism or protectionism for the mining and extractives industry as well as soft commodities sector and the oil industry.
‘Res ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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