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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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