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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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