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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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