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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 20 January 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SEEN LOWER IN 2ND HALF OF 2014
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.78 pmt month on month on Friday 17 January 2014. T ...
Monday, 20 January 14
THE CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE LOST DIRECTION
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 4.25 percept month on month and closed at US$ 79.48 per mt as ...
Sunday, 19 January 14
FREIGHT MARKETS SEE CONTINUED WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The market has continued to soften particularly in the far East/SE Asia sector.
The BDI was down 6 pct week on week, the index was ...
Friday, 17 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN WEEK ON WEEK: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Friday, 17 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS DECLINE, BOUNCES BACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a rough start to the New Year for the dry bulk market, which was supposed to be on the verge of rallying to new heights this year, on the ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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