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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 17 January 14
SPOT COAL PRICE TRENDS IN US VARY ACROSS KEY BASINS DURING 2013, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: Spot steam coal price trends in US varied across key basins in 2013, a latest EIA report says. Compared with 2012, while total coal de ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
PANAMAX : THE GAP BETWEEN SPOT AND PERIOD HAS INCREASED IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen rates slowly sliding on lack of enough fresh business. USG/Continent still paying excess 28k and seems on an upw ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
SHIP OWNERS SCRAP 1,119 SHIPS DURING 2013 ON THE BACK OF OVERSUPPLY ISSUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Scrapping of older vessels is still the best bet that ship owners can make, in order to improve their newer vessels' fortunes, amid an oversupply o ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 360K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG PLANT
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 360,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL BY 6.57% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 6.57 percept month on month and closed at US$ 78.90 per mt as ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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