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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 March 14
SGX'S Q2'14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSES SLIGHTLY HIGHER W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.81 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.82 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 23 March 14
THE COAL FREIGHT RATES SEEN SLIGHTLY FIRMING UP THIS WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market firmed up this week. BDI was up 8.26 pct week on week and index was closed at 1599 points. The Cape index was u ...
Saturday, 22 March 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST $15 BILLION FOR NEWBUILDINGS AND SECONDHAND VESSELS DURING FEBRUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have kept on their aggressive stance in the investment scene both for newbuildings, as well as for secondhand vessels globally durin ...
Friday, 21 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS ON RECOVERY MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has reached new year heighs, as a result of renewed Capesize demand. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday's sessio ...
Friday, 21 March 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.5%; WEST MISSISSIPPI COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.85% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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