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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
Sunday, 30 March 14
FREIGHTS FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped drastically and all sectors were affected severely.
The BDI was down by 14.13 pct and closed at 1, ...
Friday, 28 March 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST IN A WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 28 March 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES WILL NOT CURB GROWTH IN DOMESTIC STEEL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE IRON ORE - WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS
Steel plants in China have been targeted as a major source of the toxic smog enveloping Beijing and Shanghai. Emergency measures have been impos ...
Thursday, 27 March 14
PANAMAX : SEEMS TO HEAD FURTHER DOWN; CAPESIZE : ANOTHER CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE WEEK - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A weaker sentiment for the smaller size as well, with reduced activity in the Atlantic where Owners have to face significantly lower ret ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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