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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 March 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY PICKS UP PACE ON IMPROVING DRY BULK MARKET CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The gradual improvement of the dry bulk market, as expected for some time now, is urging shipowners to increase their newbuilding ordering activ ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
LARGE AMOUNT OF VESSELS CHARTERED TO HAUL IRON ORE CARGOES TO CHINESE BUYERS THIS WEEK - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com: Through the first three days of this week, 18 dry bulk vessels have been chartered to haul spot iron ore cargoes to Chinese buyers ...
Wednesday, 26 March 14
JOIN IN THE CLEAN COAL CASE STUDY WITH SINOPEC!
Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite Experts ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 57.40 PMT W/E 21 MARCH 2014
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Tuesday, 25 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 29.16% TO 2.79 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2.79 ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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