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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALLS 26.23% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 17 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q2 14 DELIVERIES LOST 2.59% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.59 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.15 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 March 14
BDI DOWN ON LOW CAPESIZE ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The freight market was slightly soft this week with BDI down by 4.28 pct week on week. The BDI closed at 1,477 points and the cape ...
Friday, 14 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS RECOVERY MODE, ON INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has entered and sustained higher ground as of this week, on the back on increased Capesize demand. Although the situation in ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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