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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 14 March 14
US, THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL PRODUCER MINED 75.3 MMST OF COAL IN FEBRUARY; DOWN 10.88% M-M
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 13 March 14
HANDY: THE FAR EAST MARKET IS IN AN UPWARD TREND - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Atlantic is a bit under pressure for spot tonnage, but the underlying sentiment is positive for the short medium future. 2-3 legs are do ...
Thursday, 13 March 14
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
During the last year we have noticed that a fair number of ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
ADARO ENERGY IMPROVES EFFICIENCY AND GENERATED STRONG EBITDA IN 2013
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia's single largest coal miner posted revenue of US$ 3.28 billion and cost of revenue of US$ 2.54 ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
DGOMC OF INDONESIA REVISED DOWN THE BENCHMARK PRICES FOR COAL BY 4.26% IN MARCH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down the government's declared coal bench mark price ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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