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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Tuesday, 18 March 14
SECOND QUARTER SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST 3.27% IN A MONTH
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Tuesday, 18 March 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALLS 26.23% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 17 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q2 14 DELIVERIES LOST 2.59% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.59 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.15 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 March 14
BDI DOWN ON LOW CAPESIZE ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The freight market was slightly soft this week with BDI down by 4.28 pct week on week. The BDI closed at 1,477 points and the cape ...
Friday, 14 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS RECOVERY MODE, ON INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has entered and sustained higher ground as of this week, on the back on increased Capesize demand. Although the situation in ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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