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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 21 March 14
MERCURIA ANNOUNCES ACQUISITION OF J.P. MORGAN PHYSICAL COMMODITIES BUSINESS
COALspot.com: Mercuria Energy Group announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to acquire its physica ...
Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas S ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
INSTEAD OF DECIDING WHETHER THE GLASS IS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY, I AM CURRENTLY GLAD THERE IS WATER IN THE GLASS - EVA TZIMA
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Right when you think that you have all your facts straight, right wh ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
EUROCOKE SUMMIT 2014
Press Release: ThyssenKrupp, Steel Institute VDEh, SSI and more headline Smithers Apex’s Eurocoke Summit
The leading coke, coal and s ...
Wednesday, 19 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUND LEADS TO MORE NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The steady rise of the dry bulk market, as evidenced by the return, yesterday, of the Baltic Dry Index above the 1,500-point mark (1,518), is fu ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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