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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 24 March 14
SGX'S Q2'14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSES SLIGHTLY HIGHER W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.81 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.82 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 23 March 14
THE COAL FREIGHT RATES SEEN SLIGHTLY FIRMING UP THIS WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market firmed up this week. BDI was up 8.26 pct week on week and index was closed at 1599 points. The Cape index was u ...
Saturday, 22 March 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST $15 BILLION FOR NEWBUILDINGS AND SECONDHAND VESSELS DURING FEBRUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have kept on their aggressive stance in the investment scene both for newbuildings, as well as for secondhand vessels globally durin ...
Friday, 21 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS ON RECOVERY MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has reached new year heighs, as a result of renewed Capesize demand. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday's sessio ...
Friday, 21 March 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.5%; WEST MISSISSIPPI COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.85% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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