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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
Sunday, 30 March 14
FREIGHTS FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped drastically and all sectors were affected severely.
The BDI was down by 14.13 pct and closed at 1, ...
Friday, 28 March 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST IN A WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 28 March 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES WILL NOT CURB GROWTH IN DOMESTIC STEEL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE IRON ORE - WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS
Steel plants in China have been targeted as a major source of the toxic smog enveloping Beijing and Shanghai. Emergency measures have been impos ...
Thursday, 27 March 14
PANAMAX : SEEMS TO HEAD FURTHER DOWN; CAPESIZE : ANOTHER CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE WEEK - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A weaker sentiment for the smaller size as well, with reduced activity in the Atlantic where Owners have to face significantly lower ret ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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