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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 07 April 14
WEEKLY SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLAIMS EDGE FALL; TREND NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 lost on month, day and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 07 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED 2.09% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 2.09 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.68 per ...
Sunday, 06 April 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEPS SLIDING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a widely followed metric that reflects the overall r ...
Friday, 04 April 14
UNITED STATES COAL OUTPUT UP 5.4% IN PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 03 April 14
PANAMAX SECTOR IS WATCHING A SEVERE DROP IN RATES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
A further weaker sentiment for the Supras as well in both hemispheres this week with oversupply of tonnage being the major headline. Tra ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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