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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 14 March 14
US, THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL PRODUCER MINED 75.3 MMST OF COAL IN FEBRUARY; DOWN 10.88% M-M
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 13 March 14
HANDY: THE FAR EAST MARKET IS IN AN UPWARD TREND - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Atlantic is a bit under pressure for spot tonnage, but the underlying sentiment is positive for the short medium future. 2-3 legs are do ...
Thursday, 13 March 14
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
During the last year we have noticed that a fair number of ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
ADARO ENERGY IMPROVES EFFICIENCY AND GENERATED STRONG EBITDA IN 2013
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia's single largest coal miner posted revenue of US$ 3.28 billion and cost of revenue of US$ 2.54 ...
Wednesday, 12 March 14
DGOMC OF INDONESIA REVISED DOWN THE BENCHMARK PRICES FOR COAL BY 4.26% IN MARCH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down the government's declared coal bench mark price ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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