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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
Friday, 06 December 13
INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTED A GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL TO EASE THE BAN ON EXPORTING UNPROCESSED ORE
COALspot.com: Indonesian House of Representatives rejected a proposal from Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik on to ease the ban on ex ...
Friday, 06 December 13
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA FIXED DEC'13 HBA AT US$ 80.31
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 2.18 / MT ...
Friday, 06 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 82.8 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 06 December 13
PANAMAXES HAVE BEEN THE ' WEAPON OF CHOICE' BY MOST DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Low ship prices, the direct consequence of subdued freight rates for the larger part of 2013 have been the main driving force behind this year's ag ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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