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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 09 December 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER DECLINED 14.43% M-M
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal exported 6.224 million tonnes of coal in November, declining by 1.05 million tons from the ...
Monday, 09 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.57 LESSER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.49 pmt month on month on Friday 6 Decembe ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DECLINE TREND IN Q2 & Q3' 14
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 6.76 percept month on month as on Friday 6 December 2013. T ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
RBCT SHIPPED 63.446 MMT OF COALS YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 63,446,232 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
SUPRAMAX SHIPS FOR EC INDIA TO CHINA ROUTE BEING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 13K - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm due to high Iron ore demand. The cape index was up by almost 25 pct this week. The grain seaso ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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