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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS VOLUME AND REVENUE IN OCTOBER MARCHED TOWARDS NORTH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $1.76* billion worth of ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
WEST AUSTRALIA IRON ORE FIXTURES ALSO CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF BUSINESS FOR CAPES - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has reversed course this past week, bringing back some of the lost excitement of the past month, as all size segments climbed hi ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
THE BUYERS' DEMAND IS CONTINUOUSLY BULLISH - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The very low rates that prevailed for the bigger part of 2013 seem to have prepared the ground for buying opportunities for shipping investors. The ...
Wednesday, 04 December 13
SGX AND CFA TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP DERIVATIVES MARKETS IN CHINA AND SINGAPORE
Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the China Futures Association (CFA) are cooperating in the development of derivatives markets in China and Singapore.
...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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