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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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