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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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