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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a cru ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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