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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 January 14
RESOURCE NATIONALISM OR PROTECTIONISM FOR THE MINING AND EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY - JOHN WHITTAKER & MICHAEL SWANGARD
Resource nationalism or protectionism for the mining and extractives industry as well as soft commodities sector and the oil industry.
‘Res ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS RETREAT TO OLD 'HABITS', REFUSING TO DEMOLISH OLD VESSELS, THREATENING MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
If one thing is clear as we reflect on the 2013 shipping markets, it's that ship owners took advantage of low prices, in order to acquire newer ton ...
Monday, 27 January 14
MERCATOR SINGAPORE REPORTS 52% INCREASE IN EBITDA FOR Q3 FY 2014 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company that operates a fleet of fourteen d ...
Monday, 27 January 14
13TH CLEAN COAL FORUM 2014
COALspot.com: (Press Release) - Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12 &13 2014 in Beijing, China. We a ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 & Q4 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.45 percent month on month and closed at US$ 79.05 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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