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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
Monday, 03 February 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTRACTS FALL
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.71 percent month on month and closed at US$ 78.87 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 03 February 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI is fell 50 pct over last one month which seems to be one of the lowest fall in last few years.
The BDI was down by 11 ...
Friday, 31 January 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.2 MMST W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 31 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL ON A FALL, EXPECTED TO WORSEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is definitely in the doldrums since the start of the year, in what could only be described as a "lost" month for indus ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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