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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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