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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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