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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 13
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Wednesday, 31 July 13
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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