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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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