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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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