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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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