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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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