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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 07 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS HOLD STEADY WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,975,160 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 6 May 2013, Newcastl ...
Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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