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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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