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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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