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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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