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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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