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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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