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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 10 March 13
INDIA - INDONESIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT : FIRM TREND
COALspot.com – This week freight market was raised and remained firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 6.70 pct closed at 843 points, ...
Sunday, 10 March 13
INDONESIA'S FORESTRY DEPARTMENT IS TO INCREASE BORROW-TO-USE PERMITS (IJIN PINJAM PAKAI) FEE SOON
COALspot.com : Indonesia to increase borrows-to-use permit fees by 33.33 percent. The government of Indonesia is planning to increase the state&rsqu ...
Friday, 08 March 13
EKO SANTOSO BUDIANTO APPOINTED AS PRESDIENT DIRECTOR OF BERAU COAL ENERGY
COALspot.com - PT Berau Coal Energy has appointed Eko Santoso Budianto as new president director, replacing Rosan Roeslani. Berau’s extraordin ...
Friday, 08 March 13
INDONESIAN HBA UP FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in March 2013.
The monthly coal reference ...
Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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