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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
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