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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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