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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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