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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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