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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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