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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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